TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8a…e842backed Over53c11,628$6,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,465.362568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c10,259$4,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,851.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over55c4,565$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.2548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Under49c2,926$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.531,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under47c2,633$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.154,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under46c2,441$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12333447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under49c1,560$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.31,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over52c1,427$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.111,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c1,285$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.693,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c1,261$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.322,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Over48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62410446.2%48 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…f2f2backed Under52c1,146$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c1,008$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.765,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under46c911.08$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.082,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over52c552.08$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26577348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Under45c491.79$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4922138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Over51c442.86$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21717250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Under48c414.58$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19926949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c348$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under29c215.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007544%33 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7b…67c2backed Under49c165.47$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Under50c164$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.787749.4%38 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd827…7e4bbacked Under48c152$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.961450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+107.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Under48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016945.6%77 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Over54c116.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.491936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Under49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038545.7%176 W · 209 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5512062.5%75 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Under25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512947.3%61 W · 68 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under28c49.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.043,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Under51c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.485246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under48c44.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4468940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under48c41.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Under51c39.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c34.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.424,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6f…7f1fbacked Over53c33.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Under47c29.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.848556.5%48 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under49c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Over51c27.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.65156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdaf…7556backed Under49c26.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1259141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1c…dc02backed Over53c20.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.756245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…48b7backed Over54c20.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.375451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.