NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d99c6bbc527a1e442ccc559d7f3b6e42bd4355a4953b089990ba9c0f947cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Over | 53c | 11,628$6,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,465.36 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 10,259$4,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,851.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 55c | 4,565$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.25 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 49c | 2,926$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.53 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,633$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.15 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 46c | 2,441$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 1,560$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.3 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 1,427$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.11 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 1,285$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.69 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,261$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.32 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Under | 52c | 1,146$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 911.08$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 52c | 552.08$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 45c | 491.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.49 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 51c | 442.86$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 48c | 414.58$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 348$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 29c | 215.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…67c2backed Under | 49c | 165.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Under | 50c | 164$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…7e4bbacked Under | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Over | 54c | 116.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 28c | 49.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 48c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 51c | 39.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 34.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…7f1fbacked Over | 53c | 33.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Under | 47c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Over | 51c | 27.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Kings won
- Lakers vs. KingsKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.