Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bab538ed1f0764e1afec0954b5a1a196412bc5bbb497aeeee2add81060ef1d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6218…f388backed Over | 41c | 4,444$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 3,257$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.19 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,188$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.77 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 17c | 1,019$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.68 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 20c | 1,018$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed Under | 74c | 1,009$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Under | 77c | 800$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 11c | 459.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 69c | 455.04$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 24c | 417.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 65c | 373.33$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 311.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 77c | 293.21$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…dedebacked Over | 17c | 262.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 77c | 255.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 27c | 202.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 29c | 149.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 41c | 127.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Over | 22c | 97.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 44c | 79.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Over | 35c | 63.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 28c | 51.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 33c | 45.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 44.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 30c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 37c | 37.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 36c | 37.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 56c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.