TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Capitals, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,247,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,261,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,247,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 833 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaefe…1e4abacked Capitals44c340,910$150,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,000.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-57.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Senators60c217,584$131,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,100.3538748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Capitals44c137,000$60,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,280.0967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Senators56c125,433$70,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,190.64247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Senators56c80,000$44,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,2007946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Senators57c47,044$26,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,228.8920354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Senators56c46,378$25,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,406.3388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Senators58c33,912$19,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,262.7279350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Capitals42c32,903$13,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,819.4733345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Capitals43c20,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,60025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals43c18,515$7,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,957.371,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Capitals43c13,425$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,813.774440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Capitals43c12,500$5,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,374.9732946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Senators56c12,138$6,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,340.648354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Capitals36c12,006$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.262,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fd…9d53backed Capitals0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Capitals44c11,912$5,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,289.0638738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals50c11,887$5,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,947.11,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Capitals45c10,725$4,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,794.386958%40 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Senators59c10,427$6,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,224.392,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Senators58c9,571$5,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.8261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Senators37c9,048$3,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,702.54949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Capitals29c8,941$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.885464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Capitals49c8,888$4,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,387.086833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Capitals44c8,432$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.1410745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Senators56c7,968$4,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,506.071040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Senators44c7,620$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.2889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Capitals43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.9411253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb18…7762backed Senators43c6,122$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Capitals44c5,682$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Capitals24c5,621$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.2639344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x563a…ea96backed Capitals44c5,318$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c1…d8eebacked Senators56c5,287$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Senators56c5,175$2,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2771,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Senators56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Capitals43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Capitals44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Senators57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9624945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Capitals1c4,931$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3118520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Capitals55c4,901$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.391,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b5…05c3backed Senators56c4,720$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x144a…6f1fbacked Capitals44c4,677$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Senators56c4,641$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.0721549.3%106 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Capitals44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Senators56c4,359$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.9624654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Capitals43c4,269$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.262065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Senators52c4,180$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.1216241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c0…0afebacked Capitals43c4,100$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Senators56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76012648.4%61 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54db…689dbacked Senators57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…84bbbacked Capitals44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Capitals43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.9686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Senators56c3,988$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.7322852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Capitals49c3,876$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.0482043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Capitals23c3,854$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.9929926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Capitals41c3,794$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.8234538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99c4…6655backed Capitals43c3,747$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Capitals43c3,611$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.61,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Senators56c3,508$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.2711947.9%57 W · 62 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Senators60c3,369$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.41,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6d…58f6backed Senators79c3,187$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Senators57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Senators57c2,807$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.0241757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Capitals43c2,790$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.752050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Senators56c2,751$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.433351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Capitals38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Capitals42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05023751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Capitals16c2,376$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.858467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Capitals44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Capitals43c2,226$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95761748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a26…610abacked Senators56c2,144$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6034…7977backed Capitals44c2,135$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Senators57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86039047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Capitals30c1,953$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.3643742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Capitals42c1,952$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.8484953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Senators57c1,860$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Capitals43c1,825$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.691838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Capitals33c1,799$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.1727739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Senators47c1,793$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.7822150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Capitals43c1,744$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Senators58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Capitals50c1,718$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.5457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Senators57c1,713$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.662,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b17…e2c1backed Senators56c1,695$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.492161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Capitals43c1,645$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.2228853.1%153 W · 135 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Senators56c1,600$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.6560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3af…749fbacked Senators57c1,591$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.131241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x559f…cd83backed Capitals44c1,591$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b4…aed7backed Capitals48c1,498$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x381c…5cacbacked Senators52c1,498$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bd…6e39backed Senators52c1,497$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fc…c256backed Capitals48c1,497$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd30b…2cdcbacked Capitals48c1,497$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.56650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6c…794abacked Senators52c1,496$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+58%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd4…5076backed Senators52c1,494$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.12650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ae…c7b4backed Capitals48c1,494$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4496…754bbacked Capitals48c1,494$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077b…0f61backed Senators52c1,494$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063a…ba9abacked Senators52c1,491$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…f77dbacked Capitals48c1,491$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.68650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.