TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over44c50,000$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,00015953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under56c42,151$23,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,604.817946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Over45c11,534$5,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,366.947844.9%35 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under61c6,534$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.92,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under56c6,500$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6401,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.9933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under55c3,562$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.551,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under56c3,452$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.132,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over44c2,540$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.052,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under56c2,301$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.4928251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under6c2,254$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2329412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Under4c1,600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41375.4%2 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under54c1,519$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.3128652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under55c955$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2583149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over46c779.81$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.4622150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under54c727$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.5817744.6%79 W · 98 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under55c700.83$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.4636038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Under54c679.99$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.594042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33022248.2%107 W · 115 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under55c443.92$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1549546.5%230 W · 265 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Over11c422$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.587230.6%22 W · 50 L+14.5wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+218.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over45c400.72$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.4416738.9%65 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Under66c380$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b9…292abacked Under54c367.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Under40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under54c264.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.411,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under55c240$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13237649.7%187 W · 189 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd1…7511backed Over45c211.07$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.396352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Over58c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3633735%118 W · 219 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…597ebacked Under58c184.56$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.583554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8159950.4%302 W · 297 L+20.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under54c148.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8019651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a0…511ebacked Under53c137.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under57c135.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.858952.8%47 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under55c134.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3958346.5%271 W · 312 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over43c115.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7348046.9%225 W · 255 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c44…6ecebacked Under39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…c7febacked Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under57c99.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Over45c95.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.346152.5%32 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.548149.3%237 W · 244 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.547249.2%232 W · 240 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over46c84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.391,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under55c72.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.771,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under55c72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.626348.7%128 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under55c72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.627148.7%132 W · 139 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under54c68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7213554.1%73 W · 62 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over32c64.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0618262.1%113 W · 69 L+15.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over32c64.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9826243.5%114 W · 148 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under54c61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9747944.7%214 W · 265 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3329550.2%148 W · 147 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3069653.4%372 W · 324 L-16.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd32…8580backed Under80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f7f…c2bbbacked Over31c48.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over44c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7521648.1%104 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over47c42.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.634436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e3…9efebacked Under57c42.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Over44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under32c37.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7974054.5%403 W · 337 L+22.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819645.4%89 W · 107 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810543.8%46 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811247.3%53 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.829147.4%138 W · 153 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.813046.2%60 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819848.5%96 W · 102 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819442.8%83 W · 111 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.818946%87 W · 102 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819745.2%89 W · 108 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819046.8%89 W · 101 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820045.5%91 W · 109 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under55c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6217552%91 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Under56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under52c30.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0549045.3%222 W · 268 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525435.4%90 W · 164 L-22.6wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.517249.4%85 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under54c24.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Under58c23.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5711840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under55c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5512652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160141.9%252 W · 349 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Under63c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.