NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54b388ef38bd2c0c921ad1a42c5600ff190274ef5aca635d39a11d40cadb596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 42c | 4,300$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.97 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 47c | 1,710$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.64 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 53c | 1,424$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.32 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 1,319$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.96 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,260$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.11 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 54c | 1,136$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.57 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 1,105$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.26 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 1c | 710.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 18c | 611.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.34 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 597.12$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.88 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 545.62$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 20c | 526$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 443.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 52c | 329.86$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 6c | 313.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 49c | 226$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 57c | 200.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 58c | 152.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 149.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Over | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 134.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…6ecebacked Under | 19c | 107.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 20c | 79.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 46c | 70.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 26c | 39.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 38.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…0b04backed Over | 54c | 28.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…4bb1backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 23.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.