NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf8758b2eb6eb06b693b07c79ac2a0c8d9acb3d96ac6e9ca70bb247493accae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Senators, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454f…04e7backed Capitals | 66c | 8,235$5,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Senators | 34c | 7,356$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Senators | 34c | 1,294$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.85 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Capitals | 66c | 1,198$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.32 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…14adbacked Senators | 34c | 879.3$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Senators | 36c | 680.89$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 38c | 370.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Capitals | 64c | 360.89$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Senators | 9c | 250.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Senators | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Senators | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Capitals | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 60c | 135.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Senators | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Senators | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Capitals | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Senators | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Capitals | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Senators | 33c | 89.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Senators | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Capitals | 66c | 60.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Senators | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Senators | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Capitals | 65c | 41.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Capitals | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Capitals | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Capitals | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Capitals | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Capitals | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Capitals | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Capitals | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Capitals | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Capitals | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Capitals | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.