Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09aa080a19bf248fcbee890ee871b8bce1f4d308a6edf8982870d8e299a59df7

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,324 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	4,539$2,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,101.96	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Under	44c	2,420$1,069 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,069.02	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-3.7wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	60c	1,342$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.19	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ed…2b21backed Over	65c	1,034$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.17	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	27c	1,008$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	71c	989.81$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705.83	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	735.42$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.39	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over	27c	720.82$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.59	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over	29c	503.41$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.42	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	79c	500$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	152	63.2%96 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Under	37c	405.98$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.21	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	27c	374.15$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.15	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over	28c	353.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.71	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c9…3a79backed Over	30c	353.23$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.26	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3490backed Over	65c	334.19$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.02	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over	43c	272.91$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.91	92	45.7%42 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb50a…3348backed Over	74c	271.38$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.38	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over	28c	267.86$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.86	190	48.4%92 W · 98 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d08…b3e7backed Under	39c	245.71$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Under	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Over	65c	196.05$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.78	252	25%63 W · 189 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	29c	191.26$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.7	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	55c	190$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.5	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Under	53c	175.47$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over	74c	173.63$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.71	95	51.6%49 W · 46 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over	30c	166.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.67	250	57.6%144 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	134	39.6%53 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Under	71c	158$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.18	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Under	40c	149.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.68	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	73c	134$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.23	172	55.2%95 W · 77 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc581…ade5backed Over	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc29b…6012backed Over	64c	126.23$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.44	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	53c	120.54$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.03	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Over	63c	119.05$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.05	124	46%57 W · 67 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Under	73c	118$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.14	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	35c	117.82$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9e…cb21backed Over	60c	102.8$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.12	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Over	72c	100.22$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	115	57.4%66 W · 49 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	27c	92.59$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.59	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	26c	87$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.38	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Under	47c	87$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.89	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.47per pick	67cpaid	-71%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	47c	83.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.53	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Over	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Under	75c	79$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under	73c	79$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.67	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c0…dfd2backed Over	26c	76.92$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.92	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over	28c	71.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	351	34.8%122 W · 229 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Under	45c	69.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	243	40.7%99 W · 144 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under	74c	69$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.06	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a0…511ebacked Under	27c	67.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16c…9d62backed Over	70c	65.11$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	66cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Under	73c	64$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.72	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb841…3cfbbacked Under	73c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	10	70%7 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	73cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Under	74c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	74c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	396	51.5%204 W · 192 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under	31c	55.17$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Under	73c	54$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over	65c	53.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e14…bc35backed Over	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9fa…c365backed Under	38c	52.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc84…4871backed Under	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	27c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.5	135	31.1%42 W · 93 L	-12.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa05…69e3backed Under	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb520…60bcbacked Over	26c	45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.3	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Over	69c	43.48$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.48	122	41.8%51 W · 71 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2348…9d10backed Over	29c	42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.82	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	31c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	241	58.1%140 W · 101 L	+34.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Over	27c	39$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.47	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56d2…7afcbacked Under	39c	38.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Over	29c	38$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.98	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	47c	37.48$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.86	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	56c	32.41$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ea…d81abacked Under	47c	31.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276f…bfb5backed Over	65c	30.91$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	198	34.8%69 W · 129 L	-17.3wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under	74c	29.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	518	47.3%245 W · 273 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Under	74c	29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Over	61c	28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.84	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Over	66c	25.3$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.49	120	55%66 W · 54 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over	63c	20.22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.42	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	-7.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event