Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc57af6a9cc03c0cdcca268d6ec270bd0e6f88c5c79078eaa572b32f829d7dc3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 1,791$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.18 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 66c | 1,048$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.52 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 876.89$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.5 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 835.85$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.62 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Over | 63c | 579.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…295fbacked Over | 70c | 520$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 461.33$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…6c23backed Over | 72c | 399.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 28c | 362.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 38c | 223.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…70a3backed Over | 66c | 222.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 44c | 196.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 61c | 164.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 66c | 151.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked Over | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 56c | 114.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 111.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 61c | 110.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 70.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Under | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 30c | 44.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 53c | 43.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…0641backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…526dbacked Over | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 54c | 31.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 25.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.