Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa984377263d94d6396c7b55f9fc9ac9b6ea21ebd615dc21f6995fc2edd35ff3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Coast Mariners FCof Adelaide United FC, Central Coast Mariners FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 74c | 2,597$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.75 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Adelaide United FC | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…e799backed Adelaide United FC | 28c | 850$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…1c7dbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Adelaide United FC | 29c | 185.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Adelaide United FC | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Adelaide United FC | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Adelaide United FC | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Adelaide United FC | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 53.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Adelaide United FC | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 71c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.