Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb40e380e9f9ca77f0831b4afc5072d113f32347ed293679e48ee3ec86f1f7c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 6,245$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.7 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Over | 58c | 5,300$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 41c | 3,474$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.53 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Over | 59c | 2,034$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 1,086$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.04 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…c146backed Over | 59c | 1,036$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 61c | 674$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 41c | 455.67$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Over | 59c | 450$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 307.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 67c | 260.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 41c | 243.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed Under | 42c | 236$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 42c | 234.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 76c | 216.36$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Over | 56c | 209.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 168.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 150.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 43c | 139$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 80c | 117.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 40c | 104.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 40c | 68.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 43c | 61.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…8898backed Under | 40c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 42c | 33.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…8019backed Under | 40c | 30.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed Over | 59c | 28.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…5f20backed Over | 62c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…60b1backed Over | 61c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.