Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f36cc6af5b6d04de9ace9d83709e34a19187a817bd405b86d18d73855587b70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f05…4480backed Under | 49c | 776.09$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 597.26$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.58 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 472.37$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 38c | 405$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 388.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 11c | 283.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 254.59$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 53c | 210.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Under | 48c | 186.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 67c | 145.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Over | 57c | 144.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 64c | 117$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Over | 34c | 106$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 56c | 94.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 89.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 35c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 34c | 79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Over | 50c | 77.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57fc…abcbbacked Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 55c | 74.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Under | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Under | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Under | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Under | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Under | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 25.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Under | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Under | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Under | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.