NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7823d5089568a4a93f019975d83122b8dfeab18ab58c759a9f8cc85d6b521871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 5c | 5,600$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Under | 60c | 3,131$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 75c | 1,385$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.67 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 1,251$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.97 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,232$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 49c | 961$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.95 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 70c | 543.14$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.2 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 57c | 279$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 40c | 230$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 60c | 205.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 142.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. KingsKings won
- Wild vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.