NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d63ee2165038907ad7ece116f6a95f3add97a89a88ea2b7a03b7671b722b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Over | 50c | 39,470$19,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,734.54 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,599.99 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 19,000$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 18,290$9,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,970.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 43c | 7,412$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.14 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 5,884$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 43c | 5,250$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.5 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 52c | 3,150$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.86 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 2,270$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.85 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,938$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 1,767$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.34 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 43c | 1,709$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 43c | 1,709$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,249$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.44 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 1,149$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.35 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Over | 43c | 1,143$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 52c | 1,072$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.44 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 46c | 519.31$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.08 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 47c | 213.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…58ecbacked Under | 69c | 199.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 147.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…fe42backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…17f3backed Over | 43c | 58.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 56.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Over | 58c | 50.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 52c | 47.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 45.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 57c | 39.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…8b4cbacked Over | 52c | 33.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 51c | 27.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Over | 48c | 26.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 48c | 26.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Under | 57c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.