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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic49c101,805$49,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,839.3487451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Cavaliers51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,50039842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers51c47,901$24,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,663.012,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Magic52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,599.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Magic49c25,441$12,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,466.2926753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Magic49c15,800$7,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7422665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1869…30c8backed Cavaliers51c15,800$8,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7422755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic49c11,854$5,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,808.61,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1f…b449backed Magic1c10,500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Cavaliers48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.6733447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Cavaliers50c10,233$5,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,139.3341649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Cavaliers48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20024045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Cavaliers51c9,999$5,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.5124554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ee…ca3cbacked Cavaliers52c9,526$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5262356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Cavaliers49c9,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,59058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Magic49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Cavaliers51c7,500$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,674.996152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Magic52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.9920744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Cavaliers50c6,625$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,32535942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Cavaliers53c6,165$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.5217554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Cavaliers52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic53c5,965$3,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,161.4545850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic51c5,701$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.562,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Cavaliers51c5,669$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.7842648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9577…18f5backed Magic52c5,453$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4821…1b87backed Magic52c5,451$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.5240%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe522…c03cbacked Magic52c5,414$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24e…bd22backed Magic52c4,990$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c93…8be1backed Magic52c4,974$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x091c…6c73backed Magic52c4,937$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Magic50c4,822$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.5824252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3015…5648backed Cavaliers48c4,800$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic49c4,696$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.2292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14b…25e5backed Cavaliers48c4,200$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4365…7722backed Magic52c4,180$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic49c4,090$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4660…32e7backed Cavaliers51c3,893$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…1e8cbacked Magic52c3,700$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers50c3,654$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e5…cf86backed Cavaliers51c3,561$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.78887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+74.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Cavaliers51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Cavaliers51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…82f9backed Magic52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5604,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bea…d30bbacked Cavaliers48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Magic47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.9737944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Cavaliers53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17541553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Cavaliers51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2252138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic49c2,493$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.023,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Magic52c2,215$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.83548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers48c2,175$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.136,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers50c2,025$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.22,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ce…577cbacked Cavaliers48c1,967$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.84450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e1…58b3backed Cavaliers48c1,946$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.924100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa293…0191backed Cavaliers48c1,941$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb325…f1b5backed Cavaliers48c1,940$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x723d…4208backed Cavaliers48c1,910$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf5…a74cbacked Cavaliers48c1,891$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a40…23b6backed Cavaliers49c1,855$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4c1…03bebacked Magic51c1,855$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.0540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d30…602bbacked Cavaliers48c1,853$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f3e…b1c9backed Cavaliers48c1,820$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5079…93a7backed Cavaliers48c1,780$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9174…a5b6backed Cavaliers48c1,700$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+66.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63ea…aea0backed Cavaliers48c1,691$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a7…87e0backed Cavaliers48c1,672$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac9…d069backed Cavaliers48c1,602$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a84…e19bbacked Cavaliers48c1,583$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.16450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers48c1,577$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.383,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x981f…f5b2backed Cavaliers48c1,538$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d1…e85fbacked Magic52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic51c1,499$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.381,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed8…e9a8backed Cavaliers48c1,485$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd181…e750backed Cavaliers48c1,470$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11a9…346abacked Cavaliers48c1,430$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers48c1,383$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.161,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Cavaliers52c1,206$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.4735747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Cavaliers49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51022845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Cavaliers52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48019350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257b…7410backed Cavaliers48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50045647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Magic50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Cavaliers48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5208347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a71…1b23backed Magic49c960$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Cavaliers51c930.59$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9915545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcc…de43backed Cavaliers51c813.73$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Magic49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39210446.2%48 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1716…31a6backed Magic52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Cavaliers50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005463%34 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Cavaliers49c728.94$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.9423845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Magic47c700$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3298744.8%39 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Magic49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34366645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Cavaliers48c645.83$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.8366046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cavaliers51c574.73$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3184150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers49c531.56$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.683,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic52c510.6$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.964,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Cavaliers53c500$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.