NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0b102cd3147af2b060146d71429e7b3c3640ab8bb4d45284f25db65a4c5d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed Magic | 1c | 14,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Magic | 56c | 11,905$6,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,667.06 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 11,555$5,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,470.67 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Magic | 53c | 10,076$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355.1 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…32e7backed Cavaliers | 47c | 7,872$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,172.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 45c | 4,988$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 4,282$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Magic | 55c | 3,811$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 44c | 2,073$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.87 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Magic | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.98 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,116$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Magic | 49c | 1,108$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.06 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Magic | 55c | 950$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…a0e4backed Cavaliers | 45c | 872.09$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.65 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Magic | 16c | 699.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Cavaliers | 45c | 653.26$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.29 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Cavaliers | 45c | 560$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 387.89$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Magic | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Magic | 55c | 364.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Magic | 55c | 352.87$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Magic | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 45c | 298.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Cavaliers | 44c | 227.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 223.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Cavaliers | 46c | 216.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 54c | 137.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Cavaliers | 44c | 117.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Magic | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Cavaliers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 62c | 54.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cavaliers | 45c | 50.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Cavaliers | 45c | 48.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Cavaliers | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Magic | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Magic | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Cavaliers | 38c | 41.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…62e3backed Magic | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…5cacbacked Magic | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Cavaliers | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…65ecbacked Magic | 56c | 32.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Cavaliers | 45c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Cavaliers | 44c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Magic | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Cavaliers | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.