NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba6bf8d3b797aa7084cbaea106c5a5f38a17687cb6c245af98159b9ac0cafa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Magic, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Cavaliers | 61c | 899.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b8f7backed Magic | 39c | 893.46$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Cavaliers | 42c | 768.68$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.99 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0cd8backed Magic | 63c | 634.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.07 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Cavaliers | 38c | 549.85$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.91 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Magic | 38c | 479.03$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cavaliers | 60c | 433.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 55c | 359.42$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 232.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Cavaliers | 40c | 205$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Magic | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Magic | 52c | 193.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Cavaliers | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 160 | 27.5%44 W · 116 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Cavaliers | 44c | 133.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 37c | 87.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…a395backed Cavaliers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Cavaliers | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Magic | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e57…600abacked Cavaliers | 51c | 43.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Cavaliers | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Magic | 52c | 40.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Cavaliers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Cavaliers | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…4229backed Magic | 66c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Magic | 66c | 15.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.