Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ef878c2eee5af9df2fcf9eb38035d8a882c6f727c6b8d54d4d4248e85d192c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 25,384$6,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,200.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 15,584$11,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,921.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 6,883$5,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,146.12 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 21c | 3,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 73c | 3,333$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Under | 76c | 2,305$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Over | 72c | 1,661$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.38 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 23c | 869.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.52 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 53c | 850.19$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 797.1$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 66c | 581.07$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 30c | 500$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 460.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 450$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 24c | 396$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.96 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 75c | 333.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 30c | 289.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…38e6backed Over | 80c | 241.13$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 72c | 210$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 76c | 114.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Over | 20c | 98.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 43c | 87.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 46c | 79.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 40c | 77.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 22c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 42c | 58.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…8d1bbacked Over | 23c | 54.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…a39fbacked Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 21c | 52.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…e5d8backed Over | 79c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…43adbacked Under | 64c | 46.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Under | 45c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Over | 58c | 40.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 36c | 39.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 32c | 34.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Under | 65c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed Under | 67c | 29.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 74c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…cb8fbacked Under | 70c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Under | 78c | 18.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 79c | 16.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Under | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.