TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c15,017$8,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,576.663,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.997062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under61c6,752$4,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,118.6356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2206459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under59c1,722$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under9c1,655$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.562718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Under36c1,141$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.015046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c871.25$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.022,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over40c853.69$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.728336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over39c800$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4888764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under61c528.87$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4144749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over39c420$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over39c420$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2323452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over46c389$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0613142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under60c338.37$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4818746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over39c329.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under58c315$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.26251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1508068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.58461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12212858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Over57c193.71$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.832650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2303…b9a7backed Over38c193.64$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over39c190$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.99659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over39c180$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over39c180$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.825659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.711458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.76556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.711259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.712458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.76460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over39c170$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.712358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5445…439ebacked Under60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.510360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.56959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over57c130$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.94951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.28261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.056549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under59c115.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9a3…790fbacked Under63c98.59$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.111650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2419943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over66c88.65$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.144975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.85459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4320753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over39c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.711661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under58c66.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.539532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.611360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.66464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.611759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.66657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.611063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.69861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.69265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over41c59.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3913852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over39c53.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.921,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.286058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.229173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under43c49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over42c47.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.633340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under46c47.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6834…67a5backed Under58c47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211450%7 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7825…89a0backed Over37c42.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over42c40.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4816750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under58c38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.863324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over44c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.275853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Over38c32.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over39c31.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Over55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb9f…a82fbacked Over55c26.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Over39c26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8614942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under54c25.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Under47c23.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.193360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Over47c23.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed Over63c21.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.931872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…43adbacked Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under57c19.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.