Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d16bbda84facbf09e9c12a01146bdc85a5e360666f4b98b48dd2793b29a03fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 63c | 5,845$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.2 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 5,813$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 4,829$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.97 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 37c | 3,870$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Over | 64c | 1,805$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 1,795$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.49 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Over | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Over | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 62c | 1,513$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.82 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…03acbacked Over | 61c | 925.54$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 38c | 626.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.27 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…2b21backed Over | 71c | 534.46$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 64c | 393.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 37c | 296.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…08c2backed Over | 60c | 286.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Over | 61c | 190.57$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…a29ebacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Over | 61c | 163.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over | 64c | 157.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Under | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 142.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 61c | 129$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…597dbacked Over | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 64c | 107.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Over | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 37c | 87.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 37c | 82.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed Over | 61c | 77.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 60c | 72.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…9dfebacked Over | 61c | 71.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 78c | 69.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Over | 61c | 40.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 41c | 35.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1926…b195backed Over | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…881fbacked Over | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 28.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…fd19backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Under | 40c | 25.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…4ddbbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…b727backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…1071backed Over | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…b135backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…5526backed Over | 63c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…91d6backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.