Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd0fede3b3305f449c1eb1493eb1800512e36e8093dc9e905503655cf1e585a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, VfB Stuttgart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6c | 34,896$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c08…445dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 75c | 2,986$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed VfB Stuttgart | 76c | 2,815$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.68 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 1,753$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.08 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 1,263$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed VfB Stuttgart | 76c | 766.49$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed VfB Stuttgart | 76c | 417.23$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 198.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 66.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 24c | 55.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked VfB Stuttgart | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 22.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9eb0backed VfB Stuttgart | 79c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.