Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aedb03ab11a83873dd6222aeb3da7e9903532a8878b5a0eb0c08b280e4470b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 3,108$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…fd24backed Yes | 67c | 1,473$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 36c | 1,378$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…d5d5backed Yes | 64c | 1,168$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 65c | 615.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.57 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 33c | 435.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 358.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 299.95$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 35c | 253.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…2b21backed Yes | 70c | 231.03$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 34c | 195$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 56c | 159.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Yes | 67c | 135.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 55c | 108.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 32c | 106.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 33c | 101.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 32c | 91.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 75c | 80.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…a307backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 35c | 73.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked No | 36c | 73.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed Yes | 65c | 62.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…7506backed Yes | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 54c | 55.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 65c | 51.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…0d78backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c44…c88abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…8c89backed Yes | 65c | 29.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Yes | 58c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…4ed9backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b0…2554backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.