TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Blues

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bluesof Golden Knights, Blues
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$838,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$916,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,136 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Blues67c216,928$144,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,089.911,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Golden Knights56c191,215$107,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,080.598354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Blues44c171,968$75,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,302.2910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Blues44c160,654$70,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,966.4210349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights56c42,500$23,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,8001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Golden Knights56c36,336$20,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,347.9988151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Blues43c24,868$10,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,174.6467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights55c24,763$13,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,711.652,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Blues50c19,891$9,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,965.5710745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Golden Knights56c17,470$9,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,858.0256649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Golden Knights42c17,181$7,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,189.7338738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights56c10,901$6,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,066.951,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Golden Knights56c10,018$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,61047951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Golden Knights56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60026344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blues64c8,556$5,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.8689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights56c7,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Blues43c6,977$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,976.748247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights57c6,666$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.6232251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Golden Knights42c6,270$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.5834538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Blues43c6,010$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.728353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Blues42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.984949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights58c5,628$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.1748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Blues40c5,556$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.5324654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Golden Knights35c5,113$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.017844.9%35 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blues41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Golden Knights57c4,962$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.3439047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blues58c4,887$2,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.4357157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Golden Knights59c4,869$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.191,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blues44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.4560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Golden Knights57c4,386$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights57c4,178$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.311,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Golden Knights56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2406746.3%31 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Golden Knights57c3,303$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.9922150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Blues47c3,244$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.748952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights45c3,115$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.972,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Golden Knights57c3,101$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.6618840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Golden Knights56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Golden Knights57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Blues69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9308845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Golden Knights56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Blues69c2,754$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.622572%18 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Golden Knights60c2,589$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.9412552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Golden Knights58c2,511$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.3816246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Golden Knights59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Blues43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.5855446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blues54c2,282$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.71,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Golden Knights1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights59c2,174$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.591,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f11…837cbacked Golden Knights52c2,166$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Blues44c2,152$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.1238844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Golden Knights56c2,136$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.891,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights57c2,125$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.2579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Golden Knights56c2,124$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.0222852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights47c2,109$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.612,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Golden Knights57c2,042$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.021353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Golden Knights56c2,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blues44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blues42c1,975$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.4583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Golden Knights31c1,968$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.1133345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Blues65c1,950$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.483764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Golden Knights44c1,946$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.0543742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Golden Knights57c1,860$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.427157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights56c1,821$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.892,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1a…8bedbacked Golden Knights55c1,813$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b6…31e9backed Golden Knights58c1,736$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights42c1,657$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.151,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Blues61c1,647$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.145660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Blues43c1,600$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.9824845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Blues70c1,532$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.3852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Blues67c1,502$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.65757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Blues42c1,501$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.6936038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Blues71c1,406$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.524778.7%37 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Golden Knights58c1,378$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2110343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights57c1,343$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.5161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Blues43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.7918547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Blues44c1,050$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.56958%40 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Golden Knights57c1,000$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56697651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Golden Knights58c999.99$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9911253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Blues45c999.98$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9916241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Golden Knights59c999.96$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.984450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights35c975.1$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Blues41c969.95$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.2725045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden Knights56c937$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.7283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c1…7fe5backed Golden Knights59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Golden Knights54c824.27$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Golden Knights35c820.89$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights56c800.01$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Golden Knights67c800$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5366550.8%33 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Blues42c798.8$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.878443.8%343 W · 441 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x582e…37d8backed Blues79c784.43$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.433100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Golden Knights35c778.33$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22b3…62e0backed Golden Knights58c775.57$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Golden Knights57c750$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.51,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blues48c745.82$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.981,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Golden Knights6c743.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.231662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Golden Knights35c714.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b6…cfe5backed Golden Knights57c708.02$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.578843.2%38 W · 50 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Golden Knights58c704.43$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4104252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Blues71c700$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20512252.5%64 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Golden Knights8c699.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55375.4%2 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.