NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706fe4286bc13f96bf191596b9d73f95b255cb46ebf30c5804e33189c42b2c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Golden Knights, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 36c | 30,019$10,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,807.28 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blues | 64c | 17,673$11,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.43 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Golden Knights | 36c | 10,034$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.24 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blues | 64c | 8,080$5,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.38 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blues | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Blues | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Blues | 64c | 2,469$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.84 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 1,470$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blues | 64c | 925.16$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.16 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Blues | 64c | 780$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Blues | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Blues | 64c | 525.89$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Golden Knights | 36c | 421$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Blues | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Blues | 64c | 240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Golden Knights | 36c | 211.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…26e5backed Golden Knights | 46c | 183$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blues | 64c | 174.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Blues | 65c | 162$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Blues | 63c | 120.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Blues | 64c | 112.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blues | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Blues | 47c | 102.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Golden Knights | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Blues | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Blues | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Blues | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Blues | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Blues | 64c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Golden Knights | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Blues | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Golden Knights | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Blues | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Blues | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Blues | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Blues | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Blues | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Golden Knights | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Blues | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Blues | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Blues | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Blues | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Blues | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Blues | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 68c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Blues | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blues | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Blues | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Blues | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blues | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Blues | 64c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Blues | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. BluesBlues won
- Golden Knights vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.