TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under62c80,589$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over37c28,985$10,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,260.551,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over39c16,710$6,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,193.2510553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c11,987$4,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,995.982,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked Under58c8,357$4,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,846.983534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Over42c7,143$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,142.864100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Under36c6,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1602236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over64c5,461$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.8953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Over37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1502035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Over44c3,409$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.4610945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c3,324$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.473,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over37c3,312$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.4278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over39c3,185$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.231,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over65c1,889$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.271675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over37c1,200$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75634144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over39c1,197$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.4111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over42c1,196$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.183339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Over41c1,152$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+69.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Under25c1,074$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.772231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under35c1,073$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37515540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Over38c900$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55815024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over40c766.67$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under45c666$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.715742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over73c664.66$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.653773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under57c651.13$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.1544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over70c643.41$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4138055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b59…a1cdbacked Over78c627.21$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Under55c622.15$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…6dd0backed Under37c541.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over71c505$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.382948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2958336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9876…e0cabacked Under29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over46c482.28$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under29c470.28$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6710040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under56c444$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6414364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Over71c403.75$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.825364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Over63c399.97$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over42c364.29$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.293847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Over65c360.18$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.063748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Under33c304.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over62c249.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.998068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over38c234$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.084544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over40c220$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under29c213.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5511045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821e…4e0ebacked Over76c199.74$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Over72c136.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.22837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under60c130.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0737344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.052157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Under58c118.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.362755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Under13c114.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.762642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Under9c111.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Under55c111.11$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.112850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Under59c111$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under29c106.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Over64c105.63$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.617335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under30c104$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1916542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa05…69e3backed Under32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2321…6a04backed Under32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Under58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Over55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4514726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over45c99.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.887230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under39c91.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0738151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over55c91.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.093941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf924…bdd7backed Under36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under26c82.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.723141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under29c79.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.438056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.27052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1610552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…dc37backed Over45c67.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb17d…f9b4backed Under35c64.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Over51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.44057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.146549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over60c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.285853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over43c57.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8118746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b98…45e7backed Under57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over42c50.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.016251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Under60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Over40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x608d…3933backed Under40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabd…f4d2backed Under60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Under30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…298cbacked Under60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Under58c47.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.544055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x830a…ba19backed Under45c44.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832f…df63backed Under37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x706a…4b9fbacked Over43c40.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.613852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over59c36.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.064645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over42c35.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8311952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd6…4ed9backed Over44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f8…265dbacked Over63c33.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Under60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7825…89a0backed Under45c32.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.681942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…a61ebacked Under57c30.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.