Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42f8c40af683a7b08515933b78f3b59a8ab09c96060be6cc75487c13dc11873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 32,624$6,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,591.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,399.87 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 37c | 7,400$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 62c | 5,221$3,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.27 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 62c | 4,961$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.2 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 3,660$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.79 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 29c | 2,837$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 38c | 1,857$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.18 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Over | 62c | 1,350$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…e0cabacked Under | 37c | 1,181$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 37c | 1,033$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.83 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 62c | 999.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 791.31$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 37c | 703.07$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.17 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 4c | 360.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…6dd0backed Under | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 62c | 294.5$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2303…b9a7backed Under | 39c | 237.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 61c | 237.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 62c | 233.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 37c | 222.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 63c | 201.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 62c | 182.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 62c | 166.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…a02abacked Over | 62c | 162.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 35c | 159.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…45e7backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 35c | 155.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 17c | 146.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 61c | 138.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 39c | 138.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc328…d945backed Over | 62c | 90.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Under | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 21c | 76.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 37c | 64.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Under | 37c | 62.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 63c | 58.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 52.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 62c | 52.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 64c | 50.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…bc38backed Over | 62c | 46.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Over | 64c | 38.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Over | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Under | 37c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 62c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.