Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ca8c84801569f99bae74efb99317ae0743bc6582e60ef7fdaed0feb67d2dc60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 47c | 999.93$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.97 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 46c | 595.59$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.97 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 53c | 566.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 47c | 473$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.31 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Yes | 53c | 303.23$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes | 53c | 301.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 52c | 299.96$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 47c | 251.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed No | 46c | 159.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 53c | 149.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Yes | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 66c | 104.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 54c | 87.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 43c | 72.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 63c | 71.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 37c | 70.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 61.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed No | 48c | 51.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…d654backed No | 48c | 40.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…7a69backed Yes | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…700fbacked Yes | 53c | 29.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…5526backed Yes | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…f1d4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.