TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, VfL Wolfsburg
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ee…697bbacked FC Bayern München54c15,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,899.864443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked VfL Wolfsburg49c10,494$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,142.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6218…f388backed VfL Wolfsburg52c9,873$5,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,169.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München65c9,559$6,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.623,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed VfL Wolfsburg4c5,805$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed VfL Wolfsburg46c4,909$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2582638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed VfL Wolfsburg12c4,265$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.372850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked VfL Wolfsburg51c4,004$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0501181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked FC Bayern München50c3,144$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57233244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed FC Bayern München49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5301546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed FC Bayern München75c2,788$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed FC Bayern München37c2,421$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.231833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed VfL Wolfsburg50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed FC Bayern München51c1,863$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed FC Bayern München51c1,483$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.1344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed VfL Wolfsburg47c1,326$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.2510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked VfL Wolfsburg34c1,248$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.671,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed VfL Wolfsburg46c1,200$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5528248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked FC Bayern München51c1,091$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.361136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed VfL Wolfsburg46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed FC Bayern München52c999.96$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked VfL Wolfsburg30c908.36$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.594544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed VfL Wolfsburg45c797.96$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.8556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed FC Bayern München53c756.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.532050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed FC Bayern München51c705.52$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.710553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ec…0923backed VfL Wolfsburg49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked VfL Wolfsburg45c559.13$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6134144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…8fbfbacked FC Bayern München40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed FC Bayern München48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked VfL Wolfsburg50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed VfL Wolfsburg46c394.86$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.836251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked VfL Wolfsburg50c393$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.513142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed FC Bayern München51c391.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed FC Bayern München53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed FC Bayern München52c340$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.210057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked FC Bayern München35c261.76$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.611045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed FC Bayern München51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München59c220.32$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.744452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked FC Bayern München47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked VfL Wolfsburg32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed FC Bayern München44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed VfL Wolfsburg50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed FC Bayern München51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0812271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed VfL Wolfsburg15c193.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed VfL Wolfsburg49c191.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1911056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked FC Bayern München53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9058…a2c2backed FC Bayern München51c172.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.552040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked VfL Wolfsburg15c171.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.798946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked FC Bayern München32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.25875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+115.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2386…1a2dbacked FC Bayern München66c152.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.231060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed VfL Wolfsburg49c152.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2aa0…e82fbacked FC Bayern München51c150.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed VfL Wolfsburg26c150.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8438151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f8…d47abacked FC Bayern München67c148.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…0060backed FC Bayern München55c148.65$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed VfL Wolfsburg49c145.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.533340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd8f…9a78backed FC Bayern München51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+42.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed FC Bayern München52c134.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.713174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed FC Bayern München51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.657857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed FC Bayern München50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed VfL Wolfsburg50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked VfL Wolfsburg51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked FC Bayern München65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked FC Bayern München51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed FC Bayern München54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed VfL Wolfsburg50c96.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked VfL Wolfsburg53c93.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.112441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked FC Bayern München51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.434440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…807dbacked FC Bayern München64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked FC Bayern München55c72.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.722955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed VfL Wolfsburg49c64.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.253951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…a64dbacked VfL Wolfsburg49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked FC Bayern München52c59.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.813852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed VfL Wolfsburg56c59.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.623366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked FC Bayern München45c59.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.232157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed FC Bayern München51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.824645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed FC Bayern München38c53.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.473141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked VfL Wolfsburg50c52.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.437344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FC Bayern München40c50.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked FC Bayern München40c50.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.188844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86c2…a266backed FC Bayern München58c49.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed VfL Wolfsburg31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.052218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed FC Bayern München44c43.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.22948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed VfL Wolfsburg50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608d…3933backed VfL Wolfsburg53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5098…48debacked FC Bayern München41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcf…a26ebacked FC Bayern München51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68c…779dbacked FC Bayern München51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…7627backed FC Bayern München51c39.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3af…2c0abacked FC Bayern München52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4682…de69backed FC Bayern München53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1e…2604backed FC Bayern München51c35.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed FC Bayern München68c34.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.071136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed FC Bayern München35c34.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked FC Bayern München46c30.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.732650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…5bb9backed VfL Wolfsburg69c30.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed FC Bayern München51c27.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.453551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed VfL Wolfsburg46c26.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.369551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked VfL Wolfsburg46c26.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed VfL Wolfsburg58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.