Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7789563118244641e614b64f4438918eb3d0b6c2b60e534d7c1e797f3dbcd429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43de…d169backed Under | 71c | 9,190$6,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,490.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 29c | 1,776$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.27 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 1,512$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.69 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 32c | 952.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 65c | 926.8$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 620.9$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…3ff1backed Over | 29c | 460$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…d622backed Under | 69c | 396$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 333.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 272.48$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 259.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 29c | 160$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 60c | 89.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 29c | 84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 69c | 64.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 29c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 29c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 52.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 71c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Over | 63c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.