Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3927294fac86a2587e7c380accbf0d9880b7a7d7337da1c064e4850e952e8b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 2,977$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.42 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 1,784$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,567$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.58 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 54c | 1,503$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.3 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,382$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.35 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 71c | 1,130$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 47c | 899.99$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 51c | 586.77$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.51 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Over | 53c | 579.7$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 57c | 480$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 59c | 474.58$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 70c | 435.1$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 3c | 423.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +6.4wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 54c | 253.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 194.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 55c | 183.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Under | 54c | 105.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 35c | 90.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 73.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Over | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…1a0fbacked Under | 48c | 53.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd2…3c9cbacked Over | 54c | 52.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 53c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…4fb7backed Under | 48c | 50.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 51c | 50.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 47c | 46.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbf…a449backed Over | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…5442backed Over | 54c | 40.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…7727backed Under | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 54c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.