Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf05964d261aa7688c305ce76441d7db6507ffbe3c5469ec1cf62024f2f22b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 8,171$6,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 3,147$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.56 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 2,860$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.44 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,822$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.62 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Under | 75c | 2,399$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.75 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 2,315$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 1,250$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 37c | 540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 77c | 533$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 28c | 500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Under | 71c | 467.11$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 70c | 372.43$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 29c | 352.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 72c | 277.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 71c | 277$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 5c | 247$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 72c | 194.92$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…f644backed Over | 28c | 181.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 19c | 174.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 37c | 172$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 72c | 138.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…cb07backed Under | 74c | 135.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Over | 23c | 80.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 72c | 69.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over | 20c | 63.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 77c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6f28backed Under | 75c | 43.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 70c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…865cbacked Under | 70c | 31.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…2a97backed Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb2…0e92backed Under | 76c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…c864backed Under | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 75c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6971…c447backed Under | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.