Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9d536f7c256fabe1b7d1a010e97d2b91a35158effa39996cdaeed4ef1d0336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 13c | 7,304$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.22 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 13c | 1,148$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba5…d550backed Over | 78c | 1,092$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Under | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…04d6backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 14c | 475.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 13c | 418.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 14c | 399.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 13c | 381.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…1763backed Under | 17c | 358.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 356.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Under | 5c | 316.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 80c | 313.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 10c | 239.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 70c | 234.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…9e94backed Over | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 13c | 182.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 21c | 156.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 16c | 88.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 23c | 50.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…4675backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 74c | 44.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Over | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 74c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.