TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$642,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$660,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $642,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning50c300,514$149,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,515.371747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings50c192,681$96,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,340.6538748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Kings53c82,743$43,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,578.214247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Kings52c49,164$25,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,363.1913449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Kings52c30,943$16,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,139.3741850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings50c25,573$12,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,786.311,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning47c24,432$11,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,884.931,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings50c24,050$12,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,059.722,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lightning47c21,200$9,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,23651452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Kings51c18,603$9,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,573.7556649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Lightning48c17,033$8,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,856.9328251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings57c11,741$6,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,639.5938738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Lightning48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lightning48c9,765$4,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,077.828353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Kings52c7,533$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.083354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kings55c5,717$3,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.51,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings34c5,633$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.492,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Lightning46c5,555$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.733151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Lightning48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.338247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6501,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning45c4,994$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.741,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Kings52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Lightning48c4,355$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.622150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Kings52c4,249$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.2325447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kings27c4,196$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.12,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Lightning49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning45c3,868$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.4986649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning47c3,643$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.9461748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Lightning55c3,468$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.48952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Lightning49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2228152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lightning46c2,825$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.4293953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Kings50c2,795$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.520552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning48c2,540$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.511,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Kings52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kings50c2,442$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.8352050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings55c2,217$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.161,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Kings51c2,200$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.951,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Kings50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Lightning47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Lightning49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0208845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Kings50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Lightning50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Kings55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Lightning48c2,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Kings42c1,944$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.4943742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings74c1,898$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.21,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f32…1d64backed Kings53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2b…573cbacked Kings54c1,875$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ea…eebabacked Lightning46c1,861$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings52c1,782$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lightning48c1,723$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.238844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Kings53c1,700$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90161959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lightning47c1,547$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9184953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Lightning26c1,518$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.6618840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Lightning47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79536038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Lightning18c1,475$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.275752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings50c1,446$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.632,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Lightning49c1,300$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66324845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e87…2171backed Lightning50c1,234$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6515360.8%93 W · 60 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings50c1,190$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5951,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Kings52c1,052$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.0416246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings72c1,015$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning36c1,003$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.7357238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Kings1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Lightning49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51038445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Lightning48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52011253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Lightning49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb803…b265backed Kings1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Lightning48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5204450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Kings54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Kings51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51016241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Lightning48c990.11$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.416262.9%39 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning50c969.9$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.443,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning46c923.93$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.9288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kings61c865$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.8834538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings7c833.81$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.751,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Kings50c824.31$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1622852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ea…f2dabacked Lightning39c764.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.575536.4%20 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Lightning48c698.95$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.059754.6%53 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…0f54backed Kings77c669.01$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.1410845.4%49 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Kings52c662.98$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Kings2c662.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-58%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Lightning48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3258648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Lightning49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2431848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Kings52c605.77$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31539649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Lightning50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.0510846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5866…b045backed Kings54c592.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f1…0e04backed Kings54c592$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Kings51c588.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3947051.5%242 W · 228 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Lightning32c571.42$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.037237.5%27 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Lightning50c555$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.53961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning46c549$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.4679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79bf…0de5backed Kings54c546$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bd…ce36backed Kings52c526.38$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60d8…b371backed Kings54c510.99$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked Kings52c500.01$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25913448.5%65 W · 69 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Kings51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25554349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings40c496$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.41,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning55c495.05$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.3185464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Lightning49c491.53$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.687454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.