NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20da41e5e79844035f91da5be2993c64a0df9930ff18b6ff4f309de35174c18e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Over | 52c | 81,092$41,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,153.37 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 50c | 60,646$30,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,323 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 50c | 59,397$29,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,495.58 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 50c | 53,576$26,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,788 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 36,080$16,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,845.95 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 51c | 19,195$9,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,405.56 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 8,523$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,261.72 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 2,115$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.5 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 1,980$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.8 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,429$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 899.97$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.28 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 872.41$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 825$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.51 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 51c | 588.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 325$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Over | 50c | 299.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 50c | 255$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd440…a32ebacked Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Under | 48c | 180.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…a1e5backed Under | 53c | 180.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 138.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e573backed Over | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 69.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 68.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 46.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 27.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 26.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…4bb1backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. KingsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.