TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$538,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$585,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning58c126,093$73,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,778.5888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Ducks42c100,000$41,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,7507946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning67c47,662$31,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,949.021747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Lightning59c42,332$24,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,355.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654d…8e3ebacked Ducks41c40,901$16,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,689.39742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Ducks34c40,511$13,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,921.3338748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5e…fd91backed Lightning59c26,292$15,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,779.882462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ducks41c25,514$10,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,460.842,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks41c21,166$8,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,742.561,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Lightning59c15,000$8,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,15013049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Ducks42c14,991$6,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,296.147659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf730…ee4abacked Ducks0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Ducks42c13,285$5,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,579.733243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning57c11,799$6,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.4415953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning59c9,773$5,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,006.511,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ducks24c6,902$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.1926344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning58c6,339$3,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks32c6,229$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.692,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ducks41c5,601$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.4347951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Ducks40c5,064$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.474247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Ducks41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0501,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Ducks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9931654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Ducks30c4,840$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.9838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4940…05cbbacked Ducks42c4,735$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning60c4,697$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.232,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Ducks28c4,675$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30913251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning60c4,602$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.11,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Lightning59c4,084$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.434146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.991,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Lightning60c3,964$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.3237857.4%217 W · 161 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Lightning60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40022946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Lightning60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning68c3,428$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.291,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ducks45c3,349$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.098252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Ducks33c3,171$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.858952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Ducks42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2605735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Ducks41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Ducks41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.9929651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lightning58c2,905$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.11,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning77c2,831$2,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.691,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Lightning55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.274032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02539752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Ducks41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012844.5%57 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Lightning60c2,400$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9606855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Ducks4c2,334$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.572941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Ducks1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Ducks27c2,179$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.259562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning59c2,136$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Ducks41c2,128$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.471,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Ducks42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84012648.4%61 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Ducks41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…6a3dbacked Lightning57c1,841$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe97…e979backed Ducks43c1,825$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Ducks40c1,729$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.8933345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Ducks3c1,700$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51375.4%2 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Ducks38c1,693$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.5529926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Ducks43c1,681$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.432650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning59c1,600$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Ducks41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6154837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Ducks23c1,473$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2882043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks41c1,451$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.911,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Lightning70c1,362$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.995752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Ducks41c1,356$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.9528853.1%153 W · 135 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe529…245dbacked Lightning75c1,336$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.821163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Ducks39c1,328$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.7852050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Lightning57c1,287$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e47…85cdbacked Lightning59c1,202$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.824339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x284e…b878backed Ducks41c1,202$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.824327.9%12 W · 31 L-8.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks41c1,176$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.893,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Ducks43c1,164$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.510343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Lightning59c1,154$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.322852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Ducks31c1,123$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6343742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2595…88bcbacked Lightning59c1,118$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.384841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7e6…5b0fbacked Ducks41c1,118$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.383953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3583…c4f6backed Lightning59c1,078$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.984445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2524…33c6backed Ducks41c1,078$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.984047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning72c1,073$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.141,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lightning59c1,069$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.2984953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Ducks47c1,042$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.7123047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3180…af8dbacked Lightning59c1,007$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.874146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7619…9f85backed Ducks41c1,007$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.875255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Ducks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Ducks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Ducks42c999$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.586653%35 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51cd…d97ebacked Ducks41c937$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.173863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b0c…8568backed Lightning59c937$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.174742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Lightning73c929.97$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.146061.7%37 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Ducks42c894.91$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8625045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d8d…eb5abacked Lightning59c884$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.443831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeac7…7291backed Ducks41c884$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.444940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac0c…0dfcbacked Ducks41c828$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.482770.4%19 W · 8 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+52.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f257backed Lightning59c828$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.482055%11 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5b…1112backed Lightning59c823$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.434551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9b…ef90backed Ducks41c823$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.435255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21cf…a38ebacked Lightning59c822$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.024647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fb…204abacked Ducks41c822$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.024951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d9…d51ebacked Ducks41c820$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…3303backed Lightning59c817$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.974951%25 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdcf…2ee0backed Ducks41c817$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.973855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Lightning60c802.5$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32147256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.