NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb674fa47990f9721468862a8c93f97b1263985f00fa47d8d137abd5ae5a4093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $538,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $585,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 58c | 126,093$73,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,778.58 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Ducks | 42c | 100,000$41,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,750 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning | 67c | 47,662$31,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,949.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Lightning | 59c | 42,332$24,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,355.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…8e3ebacked Ducks | 41c | 40,901$16,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,689.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Ducks | 34c | 40,511$13,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,921.33 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Lightning | 59c | 26,292$15,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,779.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 41c | 25,514$10,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,460.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 41c | 21,166$8,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,742.56 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lightning | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Ducks | 42c | 14,991$6,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.14 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…ee4abacked Ducks | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Ducks | 42c | 13,285$5,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,579.7 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning | 57c | 11,799$6,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.44 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 59c | 9,773$5,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,006.51 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Ducks | 24c | 6,902$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.19 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 58c | 6,339$3,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.6 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ducks | 32c | 6,229$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.69 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ducks | 41c | 5,601$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.43 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7a…4c4cbacked Ducks | 40c | 5,064$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.47 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Ducks | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Ducks | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Ducks | 30c | 4,840$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.98 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…05cbbacked Ducks | 42c | 4,735$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 60c | 4,697$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.23 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Ducks | 28c | 4,675$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 60c | 4,602$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.1 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Lightning | 59c | 4,084$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Lightning | 60c | 3,964$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.32 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Lightning | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Lightning | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 68c | 3,428$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.29 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ducks | 45c | 3,349$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.09 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…2bacbacked Ducks | 33c | 3,171$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.85 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…df78backed Ducks | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -13.5wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Ducks | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Ducks | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.99 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 58c | 2,905$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.1 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 77c | 2,831$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.69 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360d…5e0fbacked Lightning | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.27 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -8.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Ducks | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Lightning | 60c | 2,400$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Ducks | 4c | 2,334$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Ducks | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Ducks | 27c | 2,179$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.25 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning | 59c | 2,136$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.6 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Ducks | 41c | 2,128$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.47 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Ducks | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Ducks | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Lightning | 57c | 1,841$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…e979backed Ducks | 43c | 1,825$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Ducks | 40c | 1,729$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.89 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Ducks | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Ducks | 38c | 1,693$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.55 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Ducks | 43c | 1,681$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.4 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 59c | 1,600$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Ducks | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ducks | 23c | 1,473$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.28 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 41c | 1,451$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.91 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Lightning | 70c | 1,362$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.99 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Ducks | 41c | 1,356$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.95 | 288 | 53.1%153 W · 135 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked Lightning | 75c | 1,336$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Ducks | 39c | 1,328$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.78 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Lightning | 57c | 1,287$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.6 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…85cdbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,202$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…b878backed Ducks | 41c | 1,202$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.82 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -8.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 41c | 1,176$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Ducks | 43c | 1,164$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Lightning | 59c | 1,154$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.3 | 228 | 52.6%120 W · 108 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Ducks | 31c | 1,123$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.63 | 437 | 42.3%185 W · 252 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…88bcbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,118$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.38 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e6…5b0fbacked Ducks | 41c | 1,118$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.38 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3583…c4f6backed Lightning | 59c | 1,078$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…33c6backed Ducks | 41c | 1,078$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.98 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 72c | 1,073$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.14 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lightning | 59c | 1,069$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.29 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Ducks | 47c | 1,042$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.71 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…af8dbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,007$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7619…9f85backed Ducks | 41c | 1,007$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.87 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Ducks | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Ducks | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 0.8%2 W · 240 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Ducks | 42c | 999$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.58 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…d97ebacked Ducks | 41c | 937$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.17 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…8568backed Lightning | 59c | 937$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.17 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Lightning | 73c | 929.97$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.14 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Ducks | 42c | 894.91$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.86 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8d…eb5abacked Lightning | 59c | 884$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…7291backed Ducks | 41c | 884$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.44 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…0dfcbacked Ducks | 41c | 828$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f257backed Lightning | 59c | 828$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…1112backed Lightning | 59c | 823$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.43 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…ef90backed Ducks | 41c | 823$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.43 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…a38ebacked Lightning | 59c | 822$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.02 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…204abacked Ducks | 41c | 822$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.02 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…d51ebacked Ducks | 41c | 820$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…3303backed Lightning | 59c | 817$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…2ee0backed Ducks | 41c | 817$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.97 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 60c | 802.5$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Ducksthis page
- Lightning vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.