NHL · resolved market

Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b22396c913a467754385181e02ef79511249c979c0dcee46b0e8ee3271ac23

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Ducksof Lightning, Ducks
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07c8…2696backed Lightning	39c	19,232$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ducks	61c	5,823$3,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,273.21	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ducks	61c	5,000$3,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,950	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Ducks	61c	3,092$1,889 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,203.08	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks	61c	2,590$1,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,009.69	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Ducks	61c	600$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning	36c	499.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	572	38.1%218 W · 354 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Ducks	61c	400$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Ducks	64c	254.98$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.79	301	52.5%158 W · 143 L	+17.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Ducks	61c	240$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Ducks	61c	120$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks	64c	107.22$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.97	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning	36c	99.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	541	32.7%177 W · 364 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Ducks	62c	96.7$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	396	49.5%196 W · 200 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Ducks	61c	90$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Ducks	61c	90$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Ducks	61c	72$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Ducks	61c	72$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	271	48.7%132 W · 139 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Ducks	61c	60$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Ducks	61c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	264	48.9%129 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Ducks	62c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	629	44%277 W · 352 L	-14.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Ducks	61c	54$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Lightning	37c	52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Ducks	62c	49$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.62	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Ducks	61c	45$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	216	48.1%104 W · 112 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f1…1ec7backed Lightning	39c	40.41$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-4.2wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	204	47.5%97 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	112	47.3%53 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-12.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	189	46%87 W · 102 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	197	45.2%89 W · 108 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Ducks	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	200	45.5%91 W · 109 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Ducks	62c	33.6$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.64	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0e…a5dabacked Ducks	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Ducks	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	104	64.4%67 W · 37 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Ducks	63c	29.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	432	50.9%220 W · 212 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lightning	48c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Ducks	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ducks	62c	22.18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.43	740	54.5%403 W · 337 L	+22.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Ducks	61c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Ducks	63c	19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	175	52%91 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Ducks	61c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc730…ace1backed Ducks	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	45cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
Lightning vs. DucksLightning won
Lightning vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event