TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea0e…a5da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst College Football at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST2857.1%16 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13
76ers vs. Grizzliesbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+92.3%+$14.77
Knicks vs. Pelicansbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+78.6%+$14.14
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$13.85
Cavaliers vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Knicks vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Rockets (-14.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+104.1%+$15.61
Nuggets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+116.3%+$23.25
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+100%+$15
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$77
Spread: Bucks (-2.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+108.3%+$45.5
Spread: Suns (-11.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+122.2%+$30.56
Spread: Suns (-9.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+85.2%+$12.78
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+44.9%+$22.46
Pistons vs. Jazzbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Bucks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+53.8%+$43.08
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+35.1%+$42.16
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$12.27
Jets vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+85.2%+$11.07
Lightning vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Wild vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Predators vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Rangers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$380.75
Canadiens vs. Panthersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+102%+$28.57
Canadiens vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$16.62
Canucks vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$22.16
Sabres vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Capitals vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+58.7%+$6.64
Rangers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+88.7%+$13.3
Blue Jackets vs. Senators: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+127.3%+$19.09
Blue Jackets vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$26.47
SHL: Brynaes vs. Oerebro HKbacked Brynaes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+41.1%+$24.64
SHL: Malmoe vs. Froelunda HCbacked Froelunda HC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+55.1%+$33.08
SHL: Faerjestad vs. Linkoepingbacked Faerjestad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+48.1%+$24.04
Penguins vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+81.8%+$24.55
All 22 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisville Cardinals vs. California Golden Bearsbacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesbacked Tennessee State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+117.4%+$16.43
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Marquette Golden Eaglesbacked Marquette Golden Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Pittsburgh Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Bowling Green Falconsbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+61.3%+$22.69
Albany Great Danes vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 146.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 135.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Vermont Catamounts vs. Princeton Tigersbacked Princeton Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+85.2%+$12.78
Vermont Catamounts vs. Princeton Tigers: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+112.8%+$24.81
UTEP Miners vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogsbacked Louisiana Tech Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Cornell Big Red vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Cornell Big Red · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+58.7%+$21.14
Giants vs. Raidersbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+72.4%+$36.21
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Ravens vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Texans vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+25%+$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST6100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+132.6%+$80.86
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3)backed Prestige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+81.8%+$32.73
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs megoshort (BO3)backed megoshort · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja (BO5)backed Veroja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+44.9%+$152.75
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerbacked L1ga Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+78.6%+$201.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.