NBA · resolved market

Spread: Suns (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94651963832381201d535e09208844ffdef919f6c28fbaa8f12efb216569ca54

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunsof Suns, Wizards
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Suns	47c	9,350$4,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,955.49	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Wizards	55c	8,887$4,888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,887.82	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Wizards	53c	8,697$4,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,637.18	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…daeebacked Wizards	54c	6,522$3,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,521.73	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Suns	46c	2,600$1,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,404	203	55.2%112 W · 91 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b8…85e7backed Suns	45c	2,222$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,222.22	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.6wins	+0.28per pick	49cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7caa…b9b0backed Suns	45c	2,207$993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.67	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards	53c	1,947$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.98	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Suns	46c	1,800$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$981	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Wizards	54c	1,724$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.22	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns	44c	1,624$722 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$901.47	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards	56c	1,484$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$831.09	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns	46c	1,211$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$654.53	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Suns	40c	869.47$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.71	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Suns	45c	810$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.5	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns	47c	770.19$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.2	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Wizards	53c	566.04$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Wizards	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked Suns	45c	292.73$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns	45c	263$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.65	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns	47c	218.05$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.54	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Wizards	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Wizards	55c	110.91$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Wizards	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Suns	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Suns	46c	94$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.76	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Wizards	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns	46c	86.84$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.89	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Wizards	69c	80$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-6.2wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Wizards	53c	74.77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Suns	40c	74.42$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.75	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Wizards	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Suns	47c	70$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.1	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards	53c	66.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Wizards	55c	56.36$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0e…a5dabacked Suns	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Wizards	54c	54.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.01	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns	43c	47.58$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.89	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards	53c	46.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Wizards	50c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Suns	47c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.08	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Suns	45c	36$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Suns	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Suns	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Wizards	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…6124backed Wizards	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards	54c	25.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa852…d55dbacked Wizards	59c	19.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Suns (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event