NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Wizards: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30e115aba43efcc17ecb19381e96bab2744a920c1d56c3dccee5ac089e0dc70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Suns | 66c | 565.11$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.67 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Wizards | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +10.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Suns | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 58c | 207.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Wizards | 28c | 179.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 31c | 117.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Wizards | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Wizards | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Suns | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Wizards | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…c801backed Wizards | 27c | 91.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Suns | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Wizards | 29c | 57.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Suns | 72c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…72bdbacked Suns | 76c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Suns | 74c | 25.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WizardsSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.