NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ba3b37a6f067af771f38659b2abc4b3856a46b5bc0b57035ee201098edf1c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 3,559$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 55c | 1,120$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 691.74$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.37 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 361.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 44c | 215.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…87d8backed Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b97…d6b9backed Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…2dbbbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 31c | 45.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 77c | 35.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…165ebacked Over | 45c | 30.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 74c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WizardsSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.