NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7268e56ef4668b9511e5189eac4a7f7e18e04c6b169651cdf4ac3f2b02ddd995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef62…b736backed Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…3393backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,427$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 47c | 173.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 141.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Over | 47c | 107.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 40.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 51c | 19.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WizardsSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.