NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4c39ba68327a5fd460cf258996555b177165525de28df80cdc703ab2cdfec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Suns | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Suns | 55c | 1,615$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.55 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Wizards | 48c | 1,459$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 45c | 1,384$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 46c | 1,381$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 49c | 1,374$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Wizards | 52c | 1,178$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.14 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Suns | 54c | 918.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.07 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 48c | 646$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 46c | 396.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 45c | 378.51$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Suns | 55c | 365$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Suns | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 48c | 318.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…2731backed Suns | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Suns | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Suns | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Wizards | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Suns | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 40c | 184.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Suns | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Suns | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Wizards | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Suns | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Suns | 55c | 129.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…159dbacked Suns | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Suns | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Suns | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Suns | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Wizards | 46c | 35.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e1…a1d4backed Wizards | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Wizards | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Wizards | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Wizards | 46c | 30.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Wizards | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…c127backed Wizards | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…8817backed Suns | 54c | 28.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Wizards | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Suns | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Suns | 54c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WizardsSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Suns vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.