NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf27b9d7a7e54bac54909ba539c6b950bd03a8463645b3b5013438398a7e4c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 45c | 3,111$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.11 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 1,604$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 51c | 1,585$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.41 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 585.4$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 4c | 295$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 107.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 58c | 73.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 58c | 62.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Over | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Under | 55c | 55.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…ce37backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Under | 55c | 28.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Under | 55c | 28.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Under | 55c | 28.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Under | 55c | 28.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Under | 55c | 27.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Under | 55c | 27.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Under | 55c | 26.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Under | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…ac80backed Under | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Under | 55c | 24.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Under | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…a4a4backed Under | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde13…76f4backed Under | 55c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…835bbacked Under | 55c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…1c5abacked Under | 55c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…02a2backed Under | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5this page
- Knicks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.