NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481872cc01e03f8bf377e495fb2fe069483bbdfaccde0fab7defad518d842c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 50c | 72,890$36,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,444.73 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Spurs | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Spurs | 50c | 21,191$10,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,595.5 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Knicks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Spurs | 50c | 7,945$3,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Spurs | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 50c | 3,351$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.35 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Spurs | 50c | 2,803$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.46 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Spurs | 49c | 2,800$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.97 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks | 56c | 2,491$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.64 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Knicks | 51c | 1,985$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.43 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Knicks | 11c | 1,652$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.28 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Knicks | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…5a11backed Spurs | 49c | 1,063$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Spurs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Spurs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Knicks | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Knicks | 50c | 630$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Knicks | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Knicks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 33c | 185.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Spurs | 50c | 174.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 50c | 149.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Knicks | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Spurs | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Knicks | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Knicks | 51c | 113.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Knicks | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Knicks | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…668ebacked Spurs | 48c | 62.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 48c | 52.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Spurs | 50c | 43.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Spurs | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…637dbacked Knicks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Knicks | 51c | 35.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Knicks | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Spurs | 42c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Knicks | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…3c9bbacked Knicks | 79c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…bb64backed Spurs | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- Knicks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.