Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. California Golden Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b145787c779337e14dca28d2b92c8fe5fb264a02009f65fb473843b0ddc221c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed California Golden Bears | 25c | 2,138$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.5 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 1,296$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.09 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 812.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked California Golden Bears | 6c | 746.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 649.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed California Golden Bears | 5c | 635$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 544.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 470$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 352.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 301$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed California Golden Bears | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed California Golden Bears | 11c | 256.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 226.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed California Golden Bears | 22c | 207$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed California Golden Bears | 22c | 206$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…9a69backed California Golden Bears | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked California Golden Bears | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed California Golden Bears | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Louisville Cardinals | 76c | 109.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 215 | 35.3%76 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed California Golden Bears | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed California Golden Bears | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed California Golden Bears | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed California Golden Bears | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…83f1backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 42.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 75c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.