College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46962caad773236113cb53f9e0ef768b72e0dcf1797f17b7a6d2f2c167bf1c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCUof USC, TCU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked TCU | 52c | 37,674$19,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,128.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed USC | 48c | 20,045$9,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,620.73 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC | 48c | 17,473$8,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,431.78 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed TCU | 49c | 4,553$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.98 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed USC | 50c | 3,000$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed TCU | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked TCU | 56c | 1,969$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.7 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed USC | 43c | 1,869$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.7 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b7b1backed USC | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked USC | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked USC | 49c | 980.39$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.39 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed TCU | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked TCU | 49c | 826.4$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed TCU | 52c | 771.04$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.1 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed USC | 51c | 719$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed USC | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed USC | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed TCU | 60c | 499.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed USC | 51c | 419.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed TCU | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed USC | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed USC | 43c | 283.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked USC | 50c | 210$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked USC | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed USC | 52c | 155.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…3ed2backed USC | 51c | 104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed TCU | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed TCU | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked USC | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked TCU | 58c | 46.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked USC | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked USC | 44c | 39.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked TCU | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed USC | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed TCU | 60c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-4.5)this page
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: USC (-5.5)TCU won
- Spread: USC (-6.5)TCU won
- USC vs. TCUTCU won
- USC vs. TCU: 1H MoneylineTCU won
- USC vs. TCU: O/U 56.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.