Spread: USC (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716bbe185d789f862594c86c54d9f94cac5b7b54d9c52e181250db4e37c8e1ea

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: TCUof USC, TCU
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcb43…3c74backed USC	50c	9,000$4,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,500	385	46%177 W · 208 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed TCU	50c	6,153$3,076 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,076.47	261	47.9%125 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed TCU	52c	4,806$2,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,307	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked USC	48c	3,497$1,676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,675.58	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed TCU	52c	2,700$1,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,296	290	55.2%160 W · 130 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed USC	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked TCU	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.79	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked USC	47c	1,500$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705	134	17.2%23 W · 111 L	-8.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed TCU	50c	1,492$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746	147	43.5%64 W · 83 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked USC	43c	1,026$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.99	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed TCU	50c	843.18$422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.59	213	48.8%104 W · 109 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked TCU	50c	700$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	204	50.5%103 W · 101 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6909…36b5backed USC	49c	612.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked USC	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	174	50%87 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked USC	49c	412.14$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed USC	47c	405.66$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.66	227	50.7%115 W · 112 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed TCU	54c	334.83$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.46	542	43.2%234 W · 308 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked USC	50c	333$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed TCU	65c	300$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed TCU	54c	207.41$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.41	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked TCU	56c	196.43$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.43	69	66.7%46 W · 23 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked USC	44c	196.43$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed TCU	52c	195$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	568	44.5%253 W · 315 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed TCU	53c	152$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.44	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked TCU	52c	144$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.12	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed TCU	52c	138$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.24	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed TCU	52c	115.38$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.38	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked USC	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.4wins	+0.26per pick	51cpaid	+52.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed TCU	53c	84$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.48	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed TCU	51c	78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.22	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed USC	48c	61.38$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.46	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed TCU	51c	60.33$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.56	25	52%13 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8512…e70ebacked TCU	53c	59$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.73	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6393…dde9backed USC	48c	54$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed TCU	52c	54$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.92	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed USC	48c	53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bea…6ce6backed USC	48c	52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked USC	48c	50.15$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+21.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe829…a4aabacked USC	48c	43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38dc…4c5fbacked USC	47c	43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked TCU	55c	40.93$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.42	526	41.8%220 W · 306 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9430…97cebacked USC	47c	39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed TCU	50c	37.89$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.95	384	50.5%194 W · 190 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed TCU	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked USC	46c	37.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	173	61.3%106 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed USC	47c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked USC	47c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1f…e0debacked TCU	50c	31.22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked USC	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed USC	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed USC	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed USC	48c	29.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked USC	48c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.34per pick	48cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb570…25dbbacked TCU	52c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed USC	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…7959backed TCU	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2348…9d10backed USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52cc…9998backed TCU	52c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe1…e560backed USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-4.3wins	-0.33per pick	48cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed USC	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: USC (-5.5)this page
O/U 55.5Over won
Spread: USC (-4.5)TCU won
Spread: USC (-6.5)TCU won
USC vs. TCUTCU won
USC vs. TCU: 1H MoneylineTCU won
USC vs. TCU: O/U 56.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: USC (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event