NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4e4a313260b8ef3c84cdc77b19978a1b4844635425df6755a19c4d85413189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 59c | 34,792$20,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,265.68 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 41c | 15,000$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 41c | 9,818$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025.32 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Over | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85c…54b5backed Under | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 1,836$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.76 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 1,611$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.5 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 58c | 1,552$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.21 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Over | 43c | 999.98$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 900$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Over | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…5756backed Under | 57c | 304.29$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 57c | 127$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 43c | 91.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 59.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 42c | 57.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 40c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 50.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…749ebacked Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 46c | 41.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…caeabacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…d675backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.