NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1585aa4768e3330ccceec61ddc593a303661b76c0a5b6751281470d7fd0791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Devils, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Devils | 35c | 50,264$17,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,509.69 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 27,292$17,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,552.3 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 9,930$6,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.67 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 4,360$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.89 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Devils | 31c | 3,032$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.38 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 2,514$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.23 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 1,080$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.91 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 923$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.05 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 823$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.82 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 808$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 798.98$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.66 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Devils | 31c | 476$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 240$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Devils | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Devils | 31c | 146.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Devils | 29c | 142.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Devils | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Devils | 27c | 120.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 86.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Devils | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…b707backed Devils | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Devils | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 31.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.