NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05e587ef64d950c91702385825c7ccdd9f76d33938a4e4ebe25661a74ddb186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 56c | 8,633$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 3,403$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 2,891$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,114$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.39 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,770$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.12 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 53c | 1,144$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 443.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 55c | 363.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 55c | 307.36$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 249$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 53c | 200.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 46c | 153$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Under | 63c | 50.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 39.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.