TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Devils vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Devils, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$978,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,067,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $978,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 520 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Maple Leafs46c177,121$81,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,539.374247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Devils54c170,022$91,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,809.2667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Devils54c114,145$62,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,139.921,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Devils56c84,112$46,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,875.0215953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs46c69,564$31,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,564.4388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654d…8e3ebacked Maple Leafs44c58,330$25,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,614.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Devils55c52,439$28,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,908.851,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Devils55c50,367$27,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,480.2856649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Maple Leafs46c49,141$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,641.26955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Maple Leafs46c44,444$20,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.7610745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Devils51c38,399$19,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,583.3913449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Maple Leafs46c35,000$16,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,899.997946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs43c25,068$10,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,1951,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Devils0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Devils52c16,375$8,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,530.281,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs46c13,000$5,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,02083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs45c12,802$5,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,032.341,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Maple Leafs45c12,592$5,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,925.826653%35 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Maple Leafs47c12,490$5,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,627.567659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Maple Leafs44c11,150$4,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,24415949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Devils55c11,137$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,125.352540%10 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Devils56c10,350$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,828.0393953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Maple Leafs45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs45c9,003$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,923.421,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Maple Leafs44c8,553$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,789.4210145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Devils55c8,453$4,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.1561953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Devils54c8,035$4,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,338.8947951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Devils56c7,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Maple Leafs44c6,120$2,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.8651044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs47c6,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,21025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs75c5,978$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.811,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs46c5,600$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,042.6860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Devils0c5,443$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs45c5,333$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.3360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs44c5,076$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.5628353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Devils44c4,813$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.5375251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Maple Leafs45c4,734$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.758247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Devils56c4,464$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Devils55c4,460$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45324654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Devils55c4,460$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.792846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Devils52c4,407$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.71,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Devils51c4,358$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.5832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Maple Leafs43c3,784$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.913953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Maple Leafs44c3,575$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Maple Leafs46c3,476$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.095248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Maple Leafs45c3,389$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.0828251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Maple Leafs45c3,356$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.3726955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Maple Leafs45c3,355$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.9830152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Devils55c3,347$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Maple Leafs47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.4928152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs43c3,039$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.841,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Devils55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Devils51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5308650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Devils20c2,759$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.262556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Maple Leafs44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Maple Leafs44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9913049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Devils39c2,393$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.6695049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs56c2,363$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.691,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Maple Leafs44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.732050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs78c2,243$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.1838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Maple Leafs45c2,222$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.227157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Maple Leafs45c2,211$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.113053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs47c2,131$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.0354047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Maple Leafs46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0803951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Devils56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs47c2,000$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd1…94ffbacked Devils52c1,925$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00130%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4839…ccb0backed Maple Leafs48c1,918$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Devils14c1,912$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6829926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Devils55c1,755$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.2538844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Devils54c1,739$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.2122852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs44c1,720$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.862,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs45c1,698$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Devils51c1,675$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8543542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Maple Leafs45c1,578$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.7826946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Maple Leafs45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Maple Leafs44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Maple Leafs48c1,496$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.6347256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Maple Leafs67c1,487$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.651947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f6…f078backed Maple Leafs45c1,465$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+96.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs50c1,437$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.091,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x820d…a149backed Devils47c1,374$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.784443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5a…0eaabacked Maple Leafs53c1,374$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.785050%25 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…d932backed Maple Leafs53c1,363$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.613935.9%14 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c95…66dabacked Devils47c1,363$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.614351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…a274backed Devils47c1,307$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.292850%14 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbf…a331backed Maple Leafs53c1,307$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.292972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+59.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xac4c…9b8ebacked Devils47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.195154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42d…2bd4backed Maple Leafs53c1,277$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.192864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35cb…93adbacked Devils40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Maple Leafs43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6846855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…6583backed Maple Leafs60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…cff7backed Maple Leafs53c1,196$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.124544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c89…0acebacked Devils47c1,196$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.123135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4eaf…dff4backed Maple Leafs53c1,188$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.364445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c9…7108backed Devils47c1,188$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.363842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6636…d4eebacked Maple Leafs53c1,169$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.432755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f9d…3441backed Devils47c1,169$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.434447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef1…d14abacked Devils47c1,150$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.